Home resales dip slightly

The Sun Cities followed a downward Valleywide trend in single-family home resales in October, tacking one more month onto a pattern of bad news that one expert said will vex the local housing market well into next year.

"The bad news just sort of continues to roll on," said Jay Butler of Arizona State University's Realty Studies Department. "There's no real particular good news about what's happening."

There was some good news in the Sun Cities, according to the latest figures released by ASU,

While sales of condominiums and townhomes in Sun City and Sun City West were essentially flat, the amount of money sellers received increased from September to October, outpacing the county sale average, which plummeted nearly $50,000.

Some 8,210 resale homes sold last month in the Valley, including 3,745 foreclosures and 4,465 traditional sales. That's down from 8,280 in September, but way up from 3,970 in October 2007. The median price was $175,000 in the traditional market last month and $159,775 in the foreclosure market. That's down from $180,000 for traditional sales, but up from $153,000 for foreclosure sales in September.

Many people are concerned about the future, the economy and the stability of their jobs, and in turn are apprehensive about making a major financial commitment like buying a home, Butler said. "What drives confidence is jobs," he said. "As long as that's an uncertain area, people will be concerned about making any major decisions. Plus, the underwriting guidelines for mortgages are tighter, so it's more difficult to qualify for financing."

Butler said the trend will continue "well into next year" because of eroding consumer confidence.

In Sun City, total single-family resales, which include traditional sales and foreclosure sales, dropped from 90 in September to 70 last month. The median price plummeted from $156,750 to $140,815.

Sun City West bucked the sales trend slightly as the total number of resales went from 35 last month to 45 in October. Prices received by sellers, however, took a hit - $198,480 in September to $190,000 in October.

The condominium/townhome market in Sun City saw a slight drop in sales from 35 to 30 month over month, but prices were up, from $97,680 last month to $119,000 in October. Sun City West condo sales were flat with 10 units being sold each month, and, like Sun City, prices rose from $132,500 to $141,000

In Surprise, there were 460 total resales in September and 495 last month, and prices were relatively stable compared to other areas - $165,900 last month to $162,000.

Sales in Peoria dropped from 375 to 360 month to month, and prices went from $202,575 to $199,900. The story was similar in Glendale, where sales went from 620 to 590 and prices dipped from $158,000 to $154,950. In El Mirage, 175 homes were sold in September and 185 in October. Prices dropped, though, from $114,750 to $108,000.

From a buyer's perspective, "the world is their oyster, they have lots of different choices in areas all over the Valley," said Dee Kepp, a Valley real estate broker and, unlike Butler, she said she has seen movement in the market in the last week.

"I happen to be working with three buyers at the moment and I just got a contract on one of my short-sale listings, all in the last week," she said. "And lots of my agent friends say all of a sudden there's some movement. I don't know if it's because of the election being over with ... but at least it's a positive move forward."

Through October, the 2008 year-to-date Valley resale total includes 39,055 traditional sales and 28,755 foreclosure sales. "I think we might see a lull in foreclosures over the next few months," Butler said. "We have these mediation programs that are offered by the lenders and the federal government, and even some of the banks have announced that they're slowing or stopping their foreclosure activity for a while as they work through these mediation programs. And the other thing is I think some people will do what they can to stay in their homes for the holidays."

Kepp expects another round of foreclosures will hit the market as interest rates reset on more adjustable rate mortgages in the next few months. "So if people cannot afford those payments after the reset, then those possibly will become additional inventory because they won't be able to afford the jump in their payment," she said.

Some 8,210 resale homes sold last month, including 3,745 foreclosures and 4,465 traditional sales. That's down from 8,280 in September, but way up from 3,970 in October 2007.